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WithdrawalsSafe withdrawal rate by retirement length
A safe withdrawal rate is the share of your portfolio you can take in the first year, then raise with inflation, with a high chance of the money lasting. Morningstar's latest estimates are 3.9% for 30 years, 3.5% for 35 years, 3.3% for 40 years and 2.9% for 50 years.
Rates by retirement length
| Retirement length | Starting rate | From $1 million | Portfolio for $40,000 a year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 years | 3.9% | $39,000 | $1,025,641 |
| 35 years | 3.5% | $35,000 | $1,142,857 |
| 40 years | 3.3% | $33,000 | $1,212,121 |
| 50 years | 2.9% | $29,000 | $1,379,310 |
Morningstar's base case: a portfolio of 40% stocks and 60% bonds, spending that rises with inflation, and a 90% chance of the money lasting in its simulations, with data as of September 30, 2025. The portfolio columns are our calculation.
What the rate assumes
- Fixed real spending. The first-year amount rises with inflation every year, whatever markets do.
- A success target. 90% here: in one of ten simulated paths the money runs out before the end.
- No fees or taxes inside the rate. A 1% fee comes out of returns, so it lowers the safe rate.
Higher rates with flexible spending
The same research finds that retirees who cut spending after bad years can start higher. The original 4% rule came from US data for 30 years; for 40 years and more, rates near 3.3% to 2.9% leave a margin.
Questions people ask
What is a safe withdrawal rate for a 40 year retirement?
Morningstar's estimate is 3.3%: $33,000 in the first year from $1,000,000, raised with inflation after that.
What is a safe withdrawal rate for a 50 year retirement?
2.9%, or $29,000 a year from $1,000,000. To spend $40,000 a year for 50 years that takes $1,379,310.
Does safe withdrawal rate include taxes?
No. The rate is the gross amount taken from the portfolio; taxes on withdrawals from traditional accounts come out of it, so they belong in your spending figure.
Does safe withdrawal rate include inflation?
Yes. The rate applies to the first year; every later withdrawal is the first one raised by inflation, so spending keeps its buying power.
Test your plan
The how long will my money last calculator shows how long a withdrawal lasts at a steady return and after a bad start. The 4% rule explained covers where the 4% figure came from.
Sources
- Amy C. Arnott, "How Much Can You Safely Withdraw If You Retire Early?", Morningstar, September 15, 2026 (data as of September 30, 2025).
- William P. Bengen, "Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data", Journal of Financial Planning, October 1994.
- Philip L. Cooley, Carl M. Hubbard and Daniel T. Walz, "Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable", AAII Journal, February 1998 (the Trinity study).
Keep reading
- How long will $1 million last in retirement?
Years $1 million lasts by withdrawal and return, for $500,000 and $2 million too, and what two bad years at the start do.
- Sequence of returns risk, explained
Same average return, different order: why a bad start does more damage, with the numbers and ways to manage it.
- Can I retire with $500K?
What $500,000 pays a year, how long it lasts at each spending level and what Social Security adds.
- How much do I need to retire at 45?
The portfolio for a 50-year retirement by spending level, the bridge to 59½ and where Social Security fits.
Last reviewed by Asier Fernández, editor, on . Educational information only, not financial advice. How we calculate